NHL Betting Trends and Insights Through Week 3
Three weeks into the NHL season, the betting trends are starting to take shape. Seattle and Ottawa are delivering value on the moneyline, Dallas has been an automatic under, and Montreal is turning games into shootouts. The early returns also offer a few futures opportunities, with Ottawa, Utah and Anaheim being undervalued in the markets.
MONEYLINE TEAMS
Kraken — 5-2 | 51.28% ROI
Seattle has flipped the script offensively. After finishing 28th in scoring last season at 2.73 goals per game and missing the playoffs, the Kraken are averaging 4.33 goals per game through their opening stretch.
New additions Mackie Samoskevich and Bobby McMann have helped reshape the forward group, while Jared McCann continues to lead the attack. Seattle's early production is a significant change from last season and makes the Kraken worth tracking in both the moneyline and over markets.
Bruins — 5-2 | 38.99% ROI
Boston followed a 100-point regular season last year with a first-round playoff exit against Buffalo. The Bruins have started this season strongly, with David Pastrnak leading an attack strengthened by offseason acquisition JJ Peterka.
Fraser Minten has also made an early impact, while Charlie McAvoy's return from suspension adds an important piece to the blue line. Unlike last year, their special teams have ranked among the best in the league early on, and secondary scoring has carried them through tight, one-goal games.
Senators — 5-2 | 34.29% ROI
Ottawa is producing shots and winning games despite a major offseason shake-up. The Senators finished with 99 points last season but were swept in the first round of the playoffs.
The biggest change was the departure of captain Brady Tkachuk, who was traded to Florida for three first-round picks and a second-round pick. Ottawa has responded with a strong start, led by Linus Ullmark's exceptional goaltending and a cohesive locker-room intent to shake off early doubters. This team is solid, defensively-sound, young, and full of attitude.
The Senators rank sixth in shots per game. The public will continue to discount them. If they can maintain that offensive pressure while continuing to limit opponents, their early moneyline success will continue. At 3%, markets are undervaluing how solid of a contender this playoff team really is.
Ducks — 4-2 | 33.33% ROI
Anaheim followed a 92-point season with a first-round upset of Edmonton before losing to Vegas in the second round. Cutter Gauthier's 41-goal breakout helped establish the Ducks as a team on the rise.
The offseason brought significant roster turnover, but Anaheim has continued winning early, with Lukáš Dostál providing strong goaltending. The young core has already demonstrated that it can compete in the playoffs, and the public continues to undervalue them on a day-to-day basis and in the futures market.
The Ducks are currently trading at 2% on the futures market, a position likely to be profitable by spring.
UNDER TEAMS
Dallas Stars — 7-0 | 89.74% ROI
Dallas is the standout under team through three weeks. The Stars have scored just 16 goals and allowed 13 across seven games. Why is the offense struggling? Inability to finish. The Stars are creating pressure, but they are failing to capitalize on high-danger scoring chances. Beyond defenseman Miro Heiskanen (who leads the team with 3 goals), the team's top-tier offensive forwards are struggling to find the back of the net. Part of this is due to Matt Duchene is out following core surgery, while Wyatt Johnston has also missed time. Meanwhile, Jake Oettinger has posted two shutouts in four appearances, with a 0.74 GAA and a .963 save percentage. Caution: We do expect this offense to pick up sometime in the near future, but right now...ride the wave.
Senators — 5-2 | 39.22% ROI
Ottawa is going to be a bet-on under team all year long. And they'll continue to be undervalued on the moneyline, making them a perfect moneyline-and-under parlay in the right spots (like against the Islanders last night).
Lightning — 4-2 | 31.75% ROI
Tampa Bay has allowed just 19 goals through seven games, with an experienced defensive group helping keep opponents in check.
The blue line features Victor Hedman, offseason addition John Carlson and the return of Ryan McDonagh, giving the Lightning considerable depth. Andrei Vasilevskiy remains the backbone in net.
The combination of veteran defense and elite goaltending makes Tampa a logical under candidate, particularly against teams that struggle to generate quality chances. The backup situation requires monitoring however, while Dennis Hildeby deals with an injury.
OVER TEAMS
Canadiens — 5-2 | 40% ROI
Montreal has been one of the strongest over teams early in the season, and it's no mystery why. Jakub Dobeš is struggling badly. After letting in 11 goals in 2 games, he got a week off, came back and let in another 5. That's 16 goals against in 3 games. 4.63 GAA and .841 save percentage on the season. Kaiden Guhle's absence also exposed a young defensive group that has struggled to contain dangerous chances.
Add to that, the team is fast as ever and has plenty of young scoring talent. Win or lose, we foresee plenty of 4-3, 5-3 games and such in the Habs near-term future.
Kraken — 5-2 | 35.44% ROI
Seattle's offensive turnaround is the key story here. The Kraken are credited with 32 goals through eight games, a dramatic improvement on last season's 2.73 goals per game.
That offensive production also supports their moneyline case. Seattle is generating enough scoring to win games while creating opportunities for higher totals, particularly when its defensive play allows opponents to contribute.
The question is whether the new-look forward group can sustain its pace. For now, Seattle belongs on the over betlist.
Blackhawks — 5-2 | 33.33% ROI
Chicago's defensive problems are creating opportunities for over bettors. The Blackhawks have allowed 32 goals through eight games in the supplied data, while Spencer Knight has reportedly conceded at least three goals in four of his last five appearances.
The larger issue appears to be shot volume and defensive structure. Chicago is allowing 30.38 shots per game, ranked 29th, and has struggled to prevent dangerous rushes and turnovers.
Knight may not be solely responsible for the results, but the Blackhawks' defensive breakdowns are giving opponents too many opportunities. Until that changes, Chicago remains a team to target with over bets.
MARKETPLACE
BUYING
Utah Mammoth — 3%
Utah pushed Vegas to six games in the first round last season, and the Mammoth are building on that experience with an aggressive offseason.
Vincent Trocheck adds an experienced two-way center, while Anders Lee brings veteran leadership. Those additions could help a young core led by Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther take another step.
Utah's reported early defensive results are also encouraging. The Mammoth are no longer just a developing team hoping to sneak into the playoffs; they have a foundation to compete for a postseason spot and potentially make noise once there.
Like the Ducks, the public continues to overlook the Mammoth. Fine with us.
