One MAJOR Reason Why The Jacksonville Jaguars Are The Best Value Bet To Win AFC (+650)
It's Week 6, and the NFL futures markets are starting to heat up. Daily trading volumes are growing, liquidity is improving, and the Super Bowl odds board is finally beginning to reflect what we've been seeing on the field.
The Rams have at last been dethroned as Super Bowl favorites, with the 49ers finally taking their place. Belatedly, and deservedly so.
Speaking of the 49ers, here's a friendly reminder: we made the case for San Francisco to win the NFC at +700 last month (read our original analysis here). Those odds have since plunged to +325. Not a bad move.
Today, we're turning our attention to another team the market may be seriously undervaluing: the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC at +650.
On the football side, the analytics crowd and film watchers are increasingly aligned: this Jaguars team is a legitimate powerhouse. In fact, Jacksonville has a strong argument as the most complete team in the NFL.
So why are the Jaguars sitting fourth on the AFC futures board, behind the Bills (+350), Ravens (+390), and Chiefs (+400)?
That is an absurd mispricing. For starters, the Jaguars have been playing like a serious contender for over a year. Since the start of last season, Jacksonville has won 17 of 22 games, tying for the best record in the league over that span. Despite a heartbreaking, last-minute postseason defeat to Buffalo, Liam Coen's first season ended with a 13-4 record, the second-best in franchise history. And the early returns this season suggest Jacksonville hasn't missed a beat....
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Numbers Through Week 5
Quarterback play
- Fourth in passer rating: 106.3
- Eighth in completion percentage: 67.1%
- Fifth in yards per attempt: 8.2
Team performance
- Second-best point differential: +52
- Third-best turnover differential: +5
Defensive efficiency
- Fewest points allowed: 14 per game
- Second-best red-zone defense: 3.25 points allowed per red-zone trip
- Third-best Defensive DVOA
- Second-fewest points allowed per drive
Offensive efficiency
- Third-most offensive snaps played with a lead: 155
- Seventh-lowest three-and-out rate: 12.8%
- Seventh-best Offensive DVOA
- Seventh-most points scored per drive
Taken together, these numbers paint the picture of a team that can win in multiple ways. Jacksonville is producing efficient quarterback play, building leads, protecting them, and consistently making life difficult for opposing offenses.
But while the Jaguars' on-field performance makes a compelling case, the biggest reason to like them at +650 has less to do with what they've already accomplished and more to do with what's coming next...
The Key: Their Schedule Advantage Is Enormous
The Jaguars have by far the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the league, by any metric.
Looking at the slate ahead, Jacksonville should be favored in all but two games. The two most challenging projected matchups are a road trip to Baltimore on November 5 and a visit to Chicago on December 6. The other 10 games come against the Texans (2), Titans (2), Colts (2), Giants, Commanders, Steelers, and Cowboys. Through Week 5, that group of opponents has an average winning percentage of just .383.
Buffalo's remaining schedule includes road games against the Raiders, Vikings, Patriots, Packers, and Broncos, alongside matchups against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bears. That's eight potentially difficult games against opponents with playoff aspirations or the talent to make a serious run.
Kansas City faces a similarly demanding slate, with games against the Seahawks, Broncos, Falcons, Bills, Rams, Bengals, Patriots, 49ers, and Chargers. That's a gauntlet. Several of those games could have major postseason implications, and Kansas City will find it difficult to navigate that stretch.
Baltimore's schedule features two games apiece against the Steelers, Browns, and Bengals, plus matchups against the Bills and Jaguars. Those divisional games are notoriously difficult to predict, and the Ravens have very little room to coast through the second half of the season. Based on the projected matchups, Baltimore could find itself an underdog in four of those games.
Under the NFL's current playoff format, the top seed in each conference receives the only first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs. That makes the race for the No. 1 seed especially valuable. A team that secures it gets an extra week of rest and avoids the uncertainty of a Wild Card game. It's a massive competitive advantage, and right now Jacksonville has the inside track.
Bottom line: Just looking at schedules alone, the Jaguars should absolutely be the favorite to win the 1-Seed right now, earning themselves a first-round bye—and you can be sure that if and when that happens, they won't be +650.
