Still Betting Against The Mets? You Might Want To Think Twice...
The New York Mets may have spent much of the first half of the season looking like baseball's biggest disappointment, but something has changed since the All-Star break....
Through September 9, the Mets are 28-21 since the All-Star break, a .553 winning percentage that would translate to roughly 90 wins over a full season.
More importantly, they've done it while frequently being priced as underdogs.
To put that last part into perspective, the Dodgers – frequently -200 or more favorites – are also 28-21 since the All-Star break.
Using the listed historical moneylines, a hypothetical bettor wagering $100 on the Mets in every game during that 47-game stretch would be up approximately $689, turning $4,700 in wagers into roughly $5,389 — an estimated +14.7% ROI.
The calculation uses DRatings' listed moneylines and should be viewed as an estimate, since prices can vary between sportsbooks and throughout the betting market.
For example, the Mets won as substantial underdogs during this stretch:
- +200 vs. Milwaukee — loss
- +124 vs. Milwaukee — win
- +116, +145, +135 vs. Dodgers — two losses and a win
- +120, +105, +115, +120, +130 during the Cleveland/Pittsburgh run — five wins
- +131 at Atlanta — win
- +150 vs. Milwaukee — win
- +170 at Tampa Bay — win
- +166 at Tampa Bay — win
For a team that entered the second half with plenty of questions, that's a remarkable turnaround.
What's Behind the Surge?
The biggest difference has arguably been on the mound.
The Mets' pitching staff has posted a 3.82 ERA since the All-Star break. Nolan McLean, for example, has gone 3-0 with a 1.08 ERA over his last four starts, while Zac Thornton has established himself as another intriguing young option for the rotation. The bullpen has also improved significantly.
The offense, for its part, has come alive as well. +105 underdogs against the Marlins this week, Mets batters put up 15 runs in a 15-14 thriller. Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Mark Vientos continue to provide the middle-of-the-order firepower, while contributions throughout the lineup have helped the Mets avoid becoming overly dependent on their stars.
That combination — improved run prevention with an offense capable of putting up crooked numbers — has made New York a much more difficult opponent than its first-half record suggested.
The Mets' biggest advantage may be that the betting market hasn't completely caught up. A team's reputation doesn't change overnight. New York spent much of the first half establishing itself as a disappointment, and that perception carried into the opening weeks after the All-Star break. But the results changed. The Mets began beating teams they weren't necessarily expected to beat, often while offering bettors plus-money returns. That's the difference between simply being a winning team and being a profitable team.
The Mets may have spent the first half of 2026 proving they weren't as good as expected. Since the All-Star break, they're increasingly making the opposite case.
